***********************************
* “Using the Carrot as the Stick" *
* Foreign Policy Analysis	 	  *
* By Bryan Early and Amira Jadoon *
* Date: March 6, 2018			  *
* Contact: bearly@albany.edu 	  *
***********************************


/* Identify the folder where the data set is located 
use "Using the Carrot as the Stick - Early and Jadoon.dta", clear

*/

***********************************
**Analyses Presented in Main Text**
***********************************

**Table 1: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT	  																		   time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
listcoef


**Figure 1: Average Marginal Effects: Coefficient Plot for Each Outcome, by the Value of U.S. Aid to Targets**

mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   c.realUS_NAT 	i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW	c.time c.time#c.time c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
estimates store threatsOUT

margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) pr (out(-2)) post
estimate store BackDown

estimates restore threatsOUT

margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) pr (out(-1)) post
estimate store ImposeSanct

estimates restore threatsOUT

margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) pr (out(0)) post
estimate store Persists

estimates restore threatsOUT

margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) pr (out(1)) post
estimate store ThreatSucc

coefplot BackDown ImposeSanct Persists ThreatSucc,   legend(row(2)) xline(0) keep(realUS_NAT) 

graph save Graph "Figure 1.gph", replace


**Figure 2: Marginal Effects of U.S. Aid on Threat Success at Represenative Values**

mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   c.realUS_NAT 	i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW	c.time c.time#c.time c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(100)1000))  pr (out(1))
marginsplot,  yline(0) 

graph save Graph "Figure 2.gph", replace

**Figure 3: Marginal Effects of U.S. Aid on Sanctions Imposition at Represenative Values**

mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   c.realUS_NAT 	i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW	c.time c.time#c.time c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(200)1900))  pr (out(-1))
marginsplot,  yline(0) 

graph save Graph "Figure 3.gph", replace



*********************************************************************
**Robustness Checks Discussed in the Text, Reported in the Appendix**
*********************************************************************

**Appendix Table A1: Summary Statistics**

summ CR_ThreatsSanct  realUS_NAT 			 HighSal4 IOsupport lnGDP Dem TargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time if threatevents==1

**Appendix Table A2: Correlation Matrix**

corr CR_ThreatsSanct  realUS_NAT 			 HighSal4 IOsupport lnGDP Dem TargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time if threatevents==1

**Appendix Table A3: Re-running Table 1 Using Current Year Economic Data**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 																	 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 			 HighSal4 IOsupport lnGDP Dem TargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb  if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)


**Appendix Table A4: Re-running Table 1 Using Robust Standard Errors**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 																	 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, robust base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 			 HighSal4 IOsupport lnGDP Dem TargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb  if threatevents==1, robust base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Table A5: Re-running Table 1 Using Standard Errors Clustered by Target Country**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 																	 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, cluster(ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 			 HighSal4 IOsupport lnGDP Dem TargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb  if threatevents==1, cluster(ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Table A6: Re-running Table 1 Using Multinomial Probit**
eststo M1: mprobit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 																	 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mprobit  CR_ThreatsSanct  US_NAT 			 HighSal4 IOsupport lnGDP Dem TargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb  if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)


**Appendix Table A7: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats with High Leverage Egypt Cases Excluded**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 																						 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 &caseid!=1995021701 & caseid!=1960050301, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 						 HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 &caseid!=1995021701 & caseid!=1960050301, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)


**Appendix Figure A1: Marginal Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on U.S. Backing Down with All Episodes**

mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   c.realUS_NAT 	i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW	c.time c.time#c.time c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(500)6300))  pr (out(-2))
marginsplot,  yline(0) 

graph save Graph "Figure A1.gph", replace

**Appendix Figure A2: Marginal Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on U.S. Backing Down, Excluding the Egypt High Leverage Episodes**
mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   c.realUS_NAT 	i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW	c.time c.time#c.time c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1 &caseid!=1995021701 & caseid!=1960050301, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
margins if threatevents==1, dydx(c.realUS_NAT) at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(500)6300))  pr (out(-2))
marginsplot,  yline(0) 

graph save Graph "Figure A2.gph", replace

**Appendix Table A8: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Using Only the Public Aid Threat Episodes**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 																						 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & aidthreatonly==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 						 HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & aidthreatonly==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 						 HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & aidthreatonly==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
listcoef

/*

This Table and Set of Figures Were Not Referenced in the Published Version of the Manuscript:

**Appendix Table A9: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats with an Interaction between Public Aid Threat and U.S. Foreign Aid**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  c.realUS_NAT i.aidthreat c.realUS_NAT#i.aidthreat  																							   time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, base(0) vce(cluster ccode1)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  c.realUS_NAT i.aidthreat c.realUS_NAT#i.aidthreat HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW  time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, base(0) vce(cluster ccode1)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Figure A3: Conditional Average Marginal Effects of Pubic Aid Threats on Threat Success Across the Values of U.S. Foreign Aid**

mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  c.realUS_NAT i.aidthreat c.realUS_NAT#i.aidthreat i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW  c.time c.time#c.time  c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, base(0) vce(cluster ccode1)
margins aidthreat, at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(500)6300)) pr (out(1))
marginsplot, recastci(rarea) xline(0)

graph save Graph "Figure A3.gph", replace

**Appendix Figure A4: Conditional Average Marginal Effects of Pubic Aid Threats on Sanctions Imposition Across the Values of U.S. Foreign Aid**
mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  c.realUS_NAT i.aidthreat c.realUS_NAT#i.aidthreat i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW  c.time c.time#c.time  c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, base(0) vce(cluster ccode1)
margins aidthreat, at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(500)6300)) pr (out(-1))
marginsplot, recastci(rarea) xline(0)

graph save Graph "Figure A4.gph", replace

*/

**Appendix Table A10: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Using the Lagged Value of U.S. Foreign Aid***

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   lagrealUSNAT 																						 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   lagrealUSNAT 						 HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)


**Appendix Table A11: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Using the Value of U.S. Foreign Aid Before the Threat was Issued***

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   PYrealUS_NAT 																						 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   PYrealUS_NAT 						 HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)


***Appendix Table A12: The Effects of Increasing and Decreasing Foreign Aid Flows on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats***

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   AidDeclines AidIncreases																						 time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   AidDeclines AidIncreases 						 HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Table A13:  The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Excluding the Cases of Negative U.S. Aid Foreign Aid Values**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT	  																		   time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUS_NAT>=0 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUS_NAT>=0 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Table A14: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Excluding the Significant Foreign Aid Dependency Cases**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 																			time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUSAidSig==0, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 	HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUSAidSig==0, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)


**Appendix Table A15: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats During the Cold War (Model 1) and Post-Cold War Eras (Model 2)**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 	HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & PostCW==0, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 	HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & PostCW==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Table A16: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Including Oil and Gas Prod. Value**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT 	HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW lnOilandGas time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)

esttab M1, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Table A17: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Using an Interaction Term with High Salience Issue **

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  c.realUS_NAT i.HighSal4 c.realUS_NAT#i.HighSal4   IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1, base(0) vce(cluster ccode1)

esttab M1, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Figure A5: Predictive Margins of High Salience on Threat Success Across the Values of U.S. Foreign Aid**
mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  c.realUS_NAT i.HighSal4 c.realUS_NAT#i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD i.PostCW  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW c.time c.time#c.time  c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, base(0) vce(cluster ccode1)
margins HighSal4, at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(500)6300)) pr (out(1))
marginsplot, recastci(rarea) xline(0) yline(0)

graph save Graph "Figure A5.gph", replace

**Appendix Figure A6: Predictive Margins of High Salience on Sanctions Imposition Across the Values of U.S. Foreign Aid**
mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct  c.realUS_NAT i.HighSal4 c.realUS_NAT#i.HighSal4 i.IOsupport c.lnrealgdp i.Dem  c.realTargTD i.PostCW  c.UNVoteSim_up i.US_DP i.PostCW c.time c.time#c.time  c.time#c.time#c.time if threatevents==1, base(0) vce(cluster ccode1)
margins HighSal4, at(c.realUS_NAT=(-300(500)6300)) pr (out(-1))
marginsplot, recastci(rarea) xline(0) yline(0)

graph save Graph "Figure A6.gph", replace

**Appendix Table A18: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Using U.S. Defense Pacts Coded with ATOP Data**
eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up USDPatop_C1 PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 , vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Figure A7: Scatter Plot of Terminal Success Outcome Observations Illustrating U.S. Foreign Aid Values for Cases Not Included in the Statistically Significant Confidence Intervals**

edit obsid countryname caseid ccode1 year realUS_NAT  CR_ThreatsSanct if realUS_NAT>400 & realUS_NAT!=. & CR_ThreatsSanct==1
scatter  realUS_NAT obsid if threatevents==1 & CR_ThreatsSanct==1 , mlabel(ccode1) yline(400)
scatter  realUS_NAT obsid if threatevents==1 & CR_ThreatsSanct==1 , yline(400)

graph save Graph "Figure A7.gph", replace

**Appendix Table A19: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Excluding the Israel 1992 Outlier Case**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT	  																		   time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & caseid!=1992012301, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & caseid!=1992012301, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Table A20: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Excluding All Observations Greater than $400 Million of Aid**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT	  																		   time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUS_NAT<=400, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUS_NAT<=400, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appendix Figure A8: Scatter Plot of Sanctions Imposition Outcomes Observations Illustrating U.S. Foreign Aid Values for Cases Not Included in the Statistically Significant Confidence Intervals**

edit obsid countryname caseid ccode1 year realUS_NAT  CR_ThreatsSanct if realUS_NAT>1600 & realUS_NAT!=. & CR_ThreatsSanct==-1
scatter  realUS_NAT obsid if threatevents==1 & CR_ThreatsSanct==-1 , mlabel(ccode1) yline(1600)
scatter  realUS_NAT obsid if threatevents==1 & CR_ThreatsSanct==-1 ,  yline(1600)

graph save Graph "Figure A8.gph", replace

**Appnedix Table A21: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Excluding the India 1965 Outlier Case**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT	  																		   time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & caseid!=1965090602, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & caseid!=1965090602, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Appnedix Table A22: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Yearly Outcomes of Economic Sanctions Threats Excluding All Observations Greater than $1.6 Billion of Aid**

eststo M1: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT	  																		   time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUS_NAT<=1600, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
eststo M2: mlogit  CR_ThreatsSanct   realUS_NAT  HighSal4 IOsupport lnrealgdp Dem  realTargTD  c.UNVoteSim_up US_DP PostCW time time_sq time_cb if threatevents==1 & realUS_NAT<=1600, vce(cluster ccode1) base(0)
esttab M1 M2, se(2) pr2 b(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)




**Appendix Table 23: Table A23: The Effects of U.S. Foreign Aid on the Imposition of U.S. Economic Sanctions Threats, 1960-2005**

/* Identify the folder where the data set is located 

use "Threat Imposition Robustness Check - Table A23.dta", clear

logit TIES_USThreat  realUSnat

*/



